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To explain what triggered the mud volcano, three hypotheses have been suggested, though none has won universal support:. From a model developed by geologists working in the UK ,  the drilling pipe penetrated the overpressured limestone , causing entrainment of mud by water.
The lack of protective casing in the bottom m of the borehole is considered a key reason why the drilling kick could not be controlled and why pressures during the kick were high enough to initiate hydraulic fracturing.
Their analysis suggests that the well has a low resistance to a kick. The well may have suffered an underground blowout that resulted in a surface breach.
The relatively close timing of the Yogyakarta earthquake, the problems of mud loss and kick in the well and the birth of the mud volcano continue to interest geoscientists.
Was the mud volcano due to the same seismic event that triggered the earthquake? Geoscientists from Norway, Russia, France and Indonesia have suggested that the shaking caused by the Yogyakarta earthquake may have induced liquefaction of the underlying Kalibeng clay layer, releasing gases and causing a pressure change large enough to reactivate a major fault nearby the Watukosek fault , creating a mud flow path that caused Lusi.
They have identified more than 10 naturally triggered mud volcanoes in the East Java province, with at least five near the Watukosek fault system, confirming that the region is prone to mud volcanism.
Increased seep activity in the mud volcanoes along the Watukosek fault coincided with the May 27, seismic event.
A major fault system may have been reactivated, resulting in the formation of a mud volcano. Lusi is near the arc of volcanoes in Indonesia where geothermal activities are abundant.
The hot mud suggests that some form of geothermal heating from the nearby magmatic volcano may have been involved. There was controversy as to what triggered the eruption and whether the event was a natural disaster or not.
According to PT Lapindo Brantas it was the Yogyakarta earthquake that triggered the mud flow eruption, and not their drilling activities. At a hearing before the parliamentary members, senior executives of PT Lapindo Brantas argued that the earthquake was so powerful that it had reactivated previously in active faults and also creating deep underground fractures, allowing the mud to breach the surface, and that their company presence was coincidental, which should exempt them from paying compensation damage to the victims.
This argument was also recurrently echoed by Aburizal Bakrie , the Indonesian Minister of Welfare at that time, whose family firm controls the operator company PT Lapindo Brantas.
However the UK team of geologists downplayed Lapindo's argument and concluded " The intensity of the earthquake at the drilling site was estimated to have been only magnitude 2 on Richter scale, the same effect as a heavy truck passing over the area.
In June , a report released by British, American, Indonesian, and Australian scientists,  concluded that the volcano was not a natural disaster, but the result of oil and gas drilling.
Soon afterwards then- vice president Jusuf Kalla announced that PT Lapindo Brantas and the owner, the Bakrie Group , would have to compensate thousands of victims affected by the mud flows.
Aburizal Bakrie frequently said that he is not involved in the company's operation and further distanced himself from the incident. On August 15, , the East Java police seized the Banjar-Panji 1 well to secure it for the court case.
After investigations by independent experts, police had concluded the mud flow was an "underground blow out ", triggered by the drilling activity.
It is further noted that steel encasing lining had not been used which could have prevented the disaster. Thirteen Lapindo Brantas' executives and engineers face twelve charges of violating Indonesian laws.
Australian artist Susan Norrie investigated the political and ecological meaning of event in a sixteen-screen video installation at the Venice Biennale.
One study found that the mud volcano was collapsing under its own weight, possibly beginning caldera formation.
Their research used GPS and satellite data recorded between June and September that showed the area affected by Lusi had subsided by between 0.
They proposed that the subsidence was due to the weight of mud and collapse of rock strata due to the excavation of mud from beneath the surface.
Their study also found that while some parts of Sidoarjo were subsiding, others were rising suggesting that the Watukosek fault system had been reactivated because of the eruption.
A study by a group of Indonesian geo-scientists led by Bambang Istadi predicted the area affected by the mudflow over a ten-year period.
After new hot gas flows began to appear, workers started relocating families and some were injured in the process. The workers were taken to a local hospital to undergo treatment for severe burns.
In Siring Barat, more families were displaced and in Kelurahan Jatirejo, new families were expected to be affected by the new flows of gas. Protesting families took to the streets demanding compensation which in turn added more delays to the already stressed detour road for Jalan Raya Porong and the Porong-Gempol toll road.
The Indonesian government has stated that their heart is with the people. However the cabinet meeting on how to disburse compensation has been delayed until further notice.
A local official Saiful Ilah signed a statement announcing that, "The government is going to defend the people of Siring. The Australian oil and gas company Santos Limited was a minority partner in the venture until The amount was covered by existing provision for costs relating to the incident.
Santos had stated in June that it maintained "appropriate insurance coverage for these types of occurrences".
New mudflows spots begun in April , this time on Porong Highway, which is the main road linking Surabaya with Probolinggo and islands to the east including Bali , despite roadway thickening and strengthening.
A new highway is planned to replace this one however are held up by land acquisition issues. The main railway also runs by the area, which is in danger of explosions due to seepage of methane and ignition could come from something as simple as a tossed cigarette.
By mid, reimbursement payments for victims had not been fully settled, and legal action against the company had stalled.
It is worth mentioning that the owner of the energy company, Aburizal Bakrie was the Coordinating Minister for People's Welfare at the time of the disaster, and is currently the chairman of Golkar , one of the most influential political parties in Indonesia.
The Sidojaro mud is rich in rock salt halite and has provided a source of income for the local residents who have been harvesting the salt for sale at the local market.
In late , international scientists who had been monitoring the situation were reported as saying that the eruption of mud at Sidoardjo was falling away quite rapidly and that the indications were that the eruption might cease by perhaps , much earlier than previously estimated.
The scientists noted that the system was losing pressure quite rapidly and had begun pulsing rather than maintaining a steady flow. The pulsing pattern, it was believed, was a clear sign that the geological forces driving the eruption were subsiding.
By the mudflow continued with tens of thousands of liters of mud contaminated with heavy metals leaking into rivers. Out of the three hypotheses on the cause of the Lusi mud volcano, the hydro fracturing hypothesis appeared to be the one most debated.
On 23 October a public relations agency in London, acting for one of the oil well's owners, started to widely publicise what it described as "new facts" on the origin of the mud volcano, which were subsequently presented at an American Association of Petroleum Geologists conference in Cape Town , South Africa on 28 October see next section.
In , this well data was finally released and published in the Journal of Marine and Petroleum Geology for the scientific community uses by the geologists and drillers from Energi Mega Persada.
After such release, however, future scientific research on Lusi should have access to a set of credible data and not be as constraint as early authors were with their limited and questionable quality of data to back their claims.
After hearing the revised arguments from both sides for the cause of the mud volcano at the American Association of Petroleum Geologists International Convention in Cape Town in October , the vast majority of the conference session audience present consisting of AAPG oil and gas professionals voted in favor of the view that the Lusi Sidoarjo mudflow had been induced by drilling.
On the basis of the arguments presented, 42 out of the 74 scientists came to the conclusion that drilling was entirely responsible, while 13 felt that a combination of drilling and earthquake activity was to blame.